In the early hours of Friday morning, Israel launched large-scale missile strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and assassinate Iranian military and scientific leadership.
Hours before, the Trump administration was at work negotiating a new Iranian nuclear deal. On Wednesday, Israel’s ambassador was at the White House. Scheduled for the weekend was a visit between Israeli officials and Steve Witcoff, the Special Envoy to the Middle East.
Without warning and despite these meetings, Israel began attacking Iran, seemingly without U.S. approval. This is a stark escalation in Israel’s military activities. Prior attacks outside of Israel’s borders were always prefaced by approval from America. This time, the U.S. had no involvement. Iran has promised to declare war. The Middle East is once again plunged into chaos.
Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his patience with Trump. Israel doesn’t think it can wait for Trump to land a deal. Better to attack now with a preemptive strike than risk an enemy getting stronger. Netanyahu has outright disrespected Trump by evading American approval. Trump is certainly in the situation room fuming.
Iran is not a wayward, idiotic state. Khamenei knows that if Iran avoids U.S. bases, it can keep the conflict as a 1-on-1. There’s no need to elevate the conflict when the U.S. is already distancing itself from Israel’s strikes.
A missile exchange could happen soon. Worse, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah could make a ground advance on northern Israel. Same with the Houthis in the Red Sea. Expect the Strait of Hormuz to shut down too.
Consequently, oil futures have spiked. Any hope of a rate cut Summer is long gone. This also puts pressure on Trump as he’s been pushing the Fed for a new cut. Fill up your tanks!